2005 WNBA Results

Elo Model Performance

For each game, the model estimates the probabilities of each team winning, based on their relative ratings. These probabilities add up to 100% and we say that the model “picks” whichever team has better than a 50% chance of winning.

Percent correct: 68.91%

Record: 164-74

Even if the Elo model was perfect, it would still get some games wrong due to inherent randomness. The model might correctly identify that a team has a 60% chance of winning, but its “pick” will be wrong 40% of the time. For the blue distribution above, we assume that the probabilities estimated by the model are exactly right and simulate every game according to those probabilities.